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Kentucky Derby: Odds to Win the Kentucky Oaks

April 28th, 2007

This one’s for the ladies.

Churchill Downs is about more than just mint julep and the Kentucky Derby. There’s also the Kentucky Oaks, the premier race on the calendar for 3-year-old fillies. Fourteen spots are available in the starting field, and at press time, there were at least 15 horses lining up for a shot at the $500,000 purse.

The easy favorite on the futures market is Rags to Riches at 3-2. This Todd Pletcher-trained chestnut filly certainly has the pedigree (sired by A.P. Indy, the 1992 Horse of the Year), and she took first place in all three of her races this year, including the Grade I Las Virgenes and the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks. However, Rags to Riches has yet to race against the level of competition she will encounter in Louisville on May 4.

That competition would have been even stiffer had Magnificence not come up with heat in her ankle after posting an amazing 109 Beyer figure in winning the Grade III Santa Paula Stakes. Folk may pose a challenge should she enter the race; her status remained uncertain as recently as last week, making the “field” at 20-1 an intriguing value choice for any handicapper with some Folk foreknowledge.

The next horse on the odds list, and the apparent No. 2 consensus choice of horseplayers, is another Todd Pletcher entry: Octave at 6-1. This roan filly knows plenty about second place – that was her result in each of her last four races, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The best value on the market may be the Juvenile winner. Dreaming of Anna (30-1) had been pointed elsewhere after some poor results as a 3-year-old, but her recent work has been so pleasing that trainer Wayne Catalano appears ready to change his mind. Dreaming of Anna was 9-1 in Pool 2 of the Oaks Future Wager, so expect her current odds to get a lot shorter.

Kentucky Derby Odds: The Top 10

April 25th, 2007

As Big Audio Dynamite once sampled, the horses are on the track.

Obscure ’80s references aside, it’s hard to believe nearly a year has passed since Barbaro conquered the field at the 2006 Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, he’s no longer with us, but other horses are waiting in the wings for their shot at glory. These are the Top 10 on the odds list.

1. Street Sense (6-1):
The reigning two-year-old champion, and a very close win at the Tampa Bay Derby vaults this colt to the top of the list.

2. Circular Quay (8-1):
Charged from way back to win the Louisiana Derby. Looked very good in recent workouts at Palm Beach Downs.

3. Great Hunter (9-1): The reigning Breeders’ Futurity champ had no problem taking the Robert B. Lewis in his 2007 debut. Trainer Doug O’Neill also handles Notional.

4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (9-1): Your latest version of Funny Cide. Trained by Barclay Tagg, won the Holy Bull and has impressed at Gulfstream Park workouts.

5. Hard Spun (10-1): Looked very good at the Lane’s End Stakes. Now has five wins in six attempts. Sired by Danzig.

6. Scat Daddy (10-1): Five wins in eight career races, including the recent Florida Derby. Not the flashiest horse in the stable, and is undervalued as a result.

7. Any Given Saturday (12-1): One of three Todd Pletcher horses on this list. Turned the Sam F. Davis into a cakewalk, as expected. Should handle 10 furlongs quite nicely.

8. Curlin (12-1): Made mincemeat of the field in February’s maiden at Gulfstream, then won the Rebel. Will tune up for Louisville at the Arkansas Derby.

9. Notional (18-1):
Blistering pace (105 Beyer), but can he keep it up over 1 ¼ miles? Skipping the Blue Grass Stakes to stay rested while the chalkier favorites compete.

10. Stormello (18-1): Still waiting for a win in 2007. Made to look bad by Scat Daddy at the Florida Derby. Needs to find more stamina.

Kentucky Derby Odds: Pletcher’s Picks (will one of Todd Pletcher’s horses win?)

April 21st, 2007

Todd Pletcher may be one of the most well-known horse trainers in the world, but he’s still looking for his first win in the Kentucky Derby. In 13 tries Pletcher has come up short each time, but with a large number of Derby contenders this year Pletcher could finally have a winner on his hands.

There are six horses that Pletcher has trained that could be among the 20-horse field in this year’s Derby. These six possible champion thoroughbreds include Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay, King of the Roxy, Sam P., Scat Daddy and Cowtown Cat.

The favorite out of that spectacular field appears to be Scat Daddy. The three-year-old colt started off the season slow with a third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes, before posting back-to-back dominant wins in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby late last month.

If Scat Daddy isn’t the one to finally bring Pletcher a Derby win, the next two stallions to keep a close eye on are King of Roxy and Any Given Saturday. King of Roxy won by 7 ½ lengths in the Hutcheson Stakes and was narrowly defeated when he finished second at the Santa Anita Derby. Any Given Saturday showed his speed in his 2 ¾ length win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but has had a couple of disappointments since then with a second-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby and a third-place finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes.

Even if those three strong contenders falter, Pletcher still has three strong horses left that could pull off an upset. Cowtown Cat made a strong case for himself as a real dark horse by winning the Illinois Derby last week, while Circular Quay also has a big victory to his name this season in the Louisiana Derby. Sam P. may be a long shot after has seeing his stock drop a little bit after failing to secure a victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (4th), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (2nd) and Santa Anita Derby (3rd).

The 2007 Triple Crown Trail

April 17th, 2007

Sure, the biggest race of this upcoming weekend takes place at Daytona (Git R Done!), but since I know very little about restrictor plates or even how to change my own oil, let’s stick with the ponies. There are a couple of interesting races this weekend that may have Kentucky Derby implications.

Here are the holiday weekend stakes for three year olds:

February 17
Jim’s Orbit Stakes Sam Houston 1 M
Sam F. Davis Stakes Tampa Bay Downs 1 1/16 M
Borderland Derby Sunland Park 1 1/16 M
Turf Paradise Derby Turf Paradise 1 1 /16 M

February 19
Southwest Stakes Oaklawn Park 1 M
Fred Capossela Aqueduct 6 F

Yes, I know there seems to be little chance the Kentucky Derby winner is going to come through Sam Houston, Sunland Park, or Turf Paradise. But that doesn’t mean we can’t get a small wager in, right?

The highlight of the weekend will take place on Monday, which is President’s Day. It’s Oaklawn Park’s first leg of their Oaklawn Triple Crown Series. The first leg is the Southwest Stakes, followed by the Rebel Stakes on March 17 and the Arkansas Derby on April 14.

Oaklawn Park has become a fashionable place to prep for the Triple Crown after successful trips to Hot Springs by the likes of Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones.

The colt to watch and likely favorite is going to be the undefeated Hard Spun. Like “Alex” and “Smarty” he ships in from the Mid-Atlantic area. The colt has an impressive pedigree, by Danzig out of the Turkoman mare Turkish Tryst. The colt has not been tested in his four starts, all romps.

He broke his maiden at Delaware Park last October by 8 3/4 lengths. In his first start against winners he easily won the $54,000 Port Penn Stakes by five lengths. The colt then shipped to Philadelphia Park and won the $50,000 Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes in December by 7 3/4 lengths.

In his three year old debut at Fair Grounds on January 13, the colt rolled to a 6 1/2 length victory in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes.

Trainer Larry Jones reported the colt suffered from a cough a couple of weeks ago, but put in a bullet work on February 7 over the main track at Oaklawn Park, 1:00.3 breezing. It was the best of 51 to work going five furlongs that morning.

In the first round of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager the colt checked in fourth in the wagering, behind only the field, Nobiz Like Showbiz, and Street Sense.

His main competition is likely going to come from Forty Grams and Officer Rocket.

Forty Grams will be making his stakes debut for trainer Steve Asmussen. The colt is coming off a 13-length win against Alw-1 company at Fair Grounds on January 29. The colt is by Distorted Humor out of the Phone Trick mare Belle South.

Officer Rocket was the beaten favorite in his last start in the $50,000 Dixieland Stakes at Oaklawn Park on January 19. The colt won a pair of stakes races as a two-year-old at Arlington Park including the Grade 3 Arlington Breeders’ Cup Futurity. The colt is by the up-and-coming sire Officer out of the Gone West mare Ocean View.

Another promising colt will be in action at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. Any Given Sunday will likely go off as the heavy favorite in the $150,000 Sam Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. The colt is trained by three-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, who has nominated 32 three-year-olds to this year’s Triple Crown.

The colt was a $1.1 million purchase and is making his first start since a runner-up finish last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on November 25 at Churchill Downs. The colt is by Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Weekend in Indy.

So if you are looking to play a parlay this weekend how about we go with Hard Spun, Any Given Sunday, and well… throw in Tony Stewart.

Street Sense and Dreaming of Anna: Triple Crown Winner?

April 16th, 2007

After an impressive ten-length win in last fall’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the talk started. Can we finally see a Juvie winner come back and win the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby? Or even win the Triple Crown?

After Breeders’ Cup Day we thought we were going to have an added bonus. Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly winner Dreaming of Anna was a very impressive winner, and owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Wayne Catalano said their talented filly would be pointed toward the Triple Crown.

That idea came to a halt on February 10 when the filly made her three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes. She stumbled coming out of the gate and did not look like the same filly who won the Eclipse Award for top two-year-old filly, weakening to finish third.

The connections have now decided to keep her facing the girls and she is likely going to do most of her running this year on turf. She won the Grade 3 Summer on grass last fall.

That leaves us with Street Sense to end the Juvie jinx. The colt will likely make his three-year-old debut in either the Hutcheson at Gulfstream or the Rushaway at Oaklawn Park. If all goes well, his second and final Kentucky Derby prep will come in the Blue Grass at Keeneland over the polytrack.

The colt is trained by Carl Nafzger, who won the Kentucky Derby in 1990 with Unbridled. Street Sense is by Street Cry out of a Dixieland Band mare.

The colt has the right foundation to be a top Derby contender. He made five starts as a two-year-old. He broke his maiden in his second career start and followed that up with third-place finishes in the Grade 3 Arlington Washington Futurity and the Grade 2 Breeders’ Futurity before his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win.

There was encouraging news out of Palm Meadows on Sunday where the two-year-old champ is training. The colt worked five furlongs in a speedy 1:00.4.

Nafzger told The Daily Racing Form, “This is what we’ve been building to thus far all winter. He really kicked in down the stretch and hit the line good. We’ve hit every step perfectly with him up to now, but he’s still a couple of more works away before he’s ready to run. But a work like this gives us more options to consider as we get closer.”

Futures bettors are ignoring “The Jinx” as Street Sense closed at 10/1 in Pool One of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The only betting interests to get more action were the field (5/2) and Nobiz Like Shobiz, who went off at 8/1.

The colt has Kentucky Derby winning connections, a pedigree that is about as good as any of the main contenders to get the 1 1/4 miles, and obviously has the talent.

Now all he needs to do is get through his two prep races healthy and get some racing luck on the first Saturday of May.

Sounds so easy, doesn’t it? The Racing Gods don’t think so.

Right now the score is Racing Gods 23, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners 0.

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