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Fast times for Belmont props

May 21st, 2007

Was Jazil just another run-of-the-mill Belmont Stakes champion?

You might draw that conclusion, based on the props list for Saturday’s Run for the Carnations. One of the more compelling items on the menu asks if the 2007 winner will post a faster time than Jazil’s 2:27.86 result at the 2006 Belmont. “Yes” and “No” are both pegged at –120.

Jazil, still racing as a 4-year-old, isn’t the fastest horse of the bunch – his career-high Beyer figure is 97. But after a slow pace to open last year’s Belmont, Jazil showed off his preferred closing style, catching and passing Bluegrass Cat to win by 1-1/4 lengths. Jazil’s finishing kick was enough for him to post the fourth-fastest Belmont time over the last 12 races.

There are some much quicker horses on tap for New York. Although Street Sense has opted out, Curlin and Hard Spun are pointed squarely at the Belmont. Hard Spun (107 Beyer) is a very fleet frontrunner, while Curlin (103 Beyer) is one of the most highly touted thoroughbreds to come down the pike in some time. They combined to run the 2007 Preakness in 1:53:46, the fastest finish there since 1996.

Weather will either help or hurt the horses on Saturday. The forecast for New York at press time called for partly cloudy conditions, with highs in the mid-80s Fahrenheit. That should create a fast track, especially with the possibility of some thundershowers the day before.

Five other horses were known to be pointed at Belmont at press time: Imawildandcrazyguy, Slew’s Tizzy, Tiago, Digger and Time Squared. Tiago won the Santa Anita Derby with a 100 Beyer figure; he will be fresh after finishing seventh at the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness. In a field of seven, maybe eight horses, Tiago should keep the Belmont’s “Big Two” honest enough to produce a swift time on Saturday.

2007 Preakness Stakes: Results, Highlights

May 10th, 2007

It wasn’t exactly the Heidi Game, but it was close enough for hockey fans.

The Ottawa Senators and the Buffalo Sabres were about to go into overtime when NBC cut away to show their regularly scheduled program: the Preakness Stakes. Those with access to Versus (or to the Canadian feed) saw the Sens move on to the Stanley Cup finals. Those without? Well, it was just another day in the life of a hockey fan in America.

At least they got to see a tremendous horse race. Curlin beat Street Sense by a nose to cash in on some of the hype he brought to the Triple Crown trail. The first two jewels in the Crown have been excellent to value bettors. At the Derby, Curlin was the pre-race favorite until Street Sense put in a beautiful workout and starting drawing all the attention – and action. Those who got in early were able to nab Street Sense at 6-1 instead of 9-2. The shoe was on the other hoof at the Preakness; although Street Sense remained the favorite at 7-5, the somewhat forgotten Curlin was generating plenty of horseplay at 7-2.

The race itself was a beauty. As expected with three frontrunners (including Hard Spun) in the field of nine, the first half-mile was a sprinter’s dream, completed in just 45.75 seconds. Street Sense, as he did at the Derby, charged from far behind to take the lead from Hard Spun down the stretch; Curlin, however, was the stalker du jour. After stumbling out of the gate, Robby Albarado put in a masterful ride, getting maximum results from Curlin down the last quarter-mile to eke out the victory.

Both Street Sense and Curlin got some help from Mother Nature. In the hour leading up to the Preakness, the track at Pimlico saw enough rainfall to harden the surface, but not enough to make it sloppy. That gave both horses the purchase they needed to make their patented closes before running out of distance.

The Preakness, exciting as it was, may prove to be even more disappointing to horseplayers than it was to hockey fans. Curlin’s victory likely brings an end to Street Sense’s career. Without a Triple Crown to race for, the Derby winner is expected to miss the Belmont and go straight to stud for something in the neighborhood of $30 million. Now that’s a golden handshake.

With Six Horses in the top 25 Will Todd Pletcher Win the Kentucky Derby?

May 2nd, 2007

Trainer Todd Pletcher is a three-time Eclipse Award winning trainer, owns the record for the highest purse money earned in a year, but is still seeking his first trip to the winners circle on the first Saturday in May in the Kentucky Derby.

Is this the year? By sheer numbers, you would think he has a pretty good shot. He nominated 32 three-year-olds to this year’s Triple Crown. No, that’s not a typo; that’s thirty-two three-year-olds!

He goes into 2007 with a record of 0-for-14 in America’s biggest race (apologies to Kevin Harvick). He does have a pair of runner-up finishes on the resume; the latest last year with longshot Bluegrass Cat.

He comes into this year locked and loaded. If things go well over the next couple of months, he could be a very busy guy in the paddock at Churchill Downs. He likely is going to have three or four contenders heading to the starting gate.

Here is a look at his most promising:

Ravel: This colt has the pedigree (by FuPeg out of an A.P. Indy mare) to be a nice one and proved it with a very impressive win in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes in his stakes debut on February 3. The colt was a $950,000 Keeneland purchase and is owned by Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor, a couple of Pletcher’s most deep-pocketed owners.

The colt’s next start will come in the Robert Lewis Stakes on March 3, or Pletcher may wait and run him in the Santa Anita Derby or San Felipe. If the colt waits for the Santa Anita Derby, that would give him just two preps as a three-year-old heading into the Kentucky Derby.

The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby off just four career starts was Exterminator in 1918. I’m pretty sure that was before online wagering was invented.

Any Given Saturday: Looked good but not great last Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes. The colt appears to have plenty of room to move forward off that effort, and let’s not forget Pletcher took Bluegrass Cat through Tampa and that colt finished in the runner-up spot in last year’s Kentucky Derby at a big price.

This colt was a $1.1 million Keeneland purchase by Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare. He finished off his two-year-old campaign with a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Club Jockey Stakes. Futures players may want to shop now for a price on this colt. His price is going to steadily drop.

Circular Quay: This colt was defeated last time out at 6/5 in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds but had a big excuse. The colt still managed to finish fifth despite losing all chance for the win when jockey John Velazquez had to take up on the colt to avoid a horse that went down in front of him.

The colt was ten lengths behind winner Street Sense in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall after getting off poorly. The colt’s late running heroics in winning the Bashford Manor and Hopeful Stakes last year stamped him as one of the top Derby contenders.

The colt is by 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch out of a Belong to Me mare. His next start is likely going to be the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 10. Look for him to rebound with a big effort in his next start.

Those are Pletcher’s top three now. If this trio drops off the Triple Crown Trail in the upcoming weeks, he has a backup crew of 29 waiting in the wings.

Among the most promising are Scat Daddy (G1 Champagne winner); Air Lord (Dover Stakes runner-up); Cowtown Cat (third in the G3 Swale); Grapelli (third in G2 San Rafael); King of the Roxy (winner of G2 Belmont Futurity); Meritocracy (recent second in Alw-1, next start Fountain of Youth); Our Sacred Honor (winner of Alw-1 at Gulfstream Park on 1/13); Out of Gwedda (second in Spectacular Bid Stakes); Sam P. (fourth in G3 Holy Bull); Soaring By (second in Alw-1 race at Gulfstream Park on February 3); Storm Trust (sixth in the G3 Swale); and Twilight Meteor (winner of Bourbon at Keeneland).

That’s a roster that probably makes George Steinbrenner jealous.

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