March 31st, 2008
Just because Curlin isn’t a 3-year-old anymore doesn’t mean that his racing career is over. The 2007 Horse of the Year carried his success into 2008, winning Saturday’s $6-million Dubai World Cup by a record 7-3/4 lengths over Well Armed and Asiatic Boy.
This was an awe-inspiring performance by last year’s Preakness winner. Curlin (the 2-5 favorite) appeared completely at ease before the race, and remained cool while stalking Well Armed before Asiatic Boy joined in. They were three-wide with a mile down and about a quarter-mile left to go. And then Curlin left his competition in the dust.
Where Curlin races next had yet to be determined at press time. At some point, the stud fees will be too big for owner Jess Jackson to keep him on the track. Until then, the chestnut colt is 7-1-2 in 10 career races and third in career earnings at $8.8 million, behind Cigar ($9.9M) and Silver Charm ($9.6M).
March 28th, 2008
From now until May 3 , the date of the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, I’ll be giving you weekly betting tips. Obviously, we’ve got a lot of work to do from now until Derby Day so let’s get started with your first tip. You can thank me later when you cash out big after picking the winning horse.
Wikipedia defines the Beyer Speed Figure as, “a system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America designed in the early 1970s by Andrew Beyer, the syndicated horse racing columnist for The Washington Post.”
The Daily Racing Form started using Beyer Speed Figures back in 1992 and to this day each performance by every horse is given a Beyer number. That number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. On the Beyer scale, the top stakes horses in the United States and Canada earn numbers in the 100’s, while great champions can rate as high as the 120’s.
How can this information help you to pick a winner at the Kentucky Derby? It’s simple. Read the DRF to check each horse’s Beyer Speed Figure. The higher the number, the better. Eliminate the non-contenders by their lower Beyer Speed Figure. It’s a handicapping tool that a lot of sharp bettors use in picking a winning horse.
March 24th, 2008
The road to the Kentucky Derby got a little tighter last weekend with Georgie Boy’s win at the $200,000 San Felipe Stakes. Before Georgie Boy’s win, the contender race for the Kentucky Derby was a one-horse show. Before last week War Pass was the heavy favorite, but his last-place finish at the Tampa Bay Derby has vaulted Georgie Boy into the favorite position for the Running of the Roses in May.
Georgie Boy ran down Gayego and Bob Black Jack to prevail by three-quarters of a length in the Grade II, 1 1/16-mile event. There have been a couple of San Felipe Stakes winner that have gone on the win the Kentucky Derby. Sunday Silence did it in 1989 and Fusaichi Pegasus did it in 2000. Georgie Boy has a three-race winning streak going into the Kentucky Derby dating back to September at the Del Mar Futurity.
March 22nd, 2008
Saturday’s $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park doesn’t feature any big-name Kentucky Derby contenders, but it’s still a major Kentucky Derby prep race (albeit a wide open one) and because it’s a grades stakes race it could give one horse a shot at the Run for the Roses in May. Halo Najib is the 7-2 morning-line favorite, with Cannonball the 9-2 second-choice for Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile race at Turfway Park.
“Whoever wins this race jumps right into the (Derby) picture — and none of them is in the top 20 now,” said track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia.
The Lane’s End has produced one Kentucky Derby winner, Lil E. Tee in 1992.
Technorati Tag(s): Lane’s End, Kentucky Derby
March 17th, 2008
They’re at the post… in two months. Until then, here are 10 things to keep in mind for betting the Kentucky Derby.
1. Churchill Downs is a dirt track. Look for horses that are good on dirt or across many surfaces.
2. It’s 1-1/4 miles, a long haul for unproven sprinters.
3. Of 32 odds-on favorites, 17 won the Derby and 11 finished second.
4. Only three fillies have won; the last was Winning Colors in 1988.
5. Winning Colors was also the only registered roan to win (she was actually gray).
6. Kentucky-bred horses have won 100 of 133 races.
7. Post positions No. 1 and No. 5 have each produced 12 champions.
8. Seven geldings have won, but only Funny Cide (2003) since 1920.
9. No winner since Iron Liege (1957) finished worse than fourth in his last Derby prep.
10. D. Wayne Lukas leads active trainers with four Derby wins – including Winning Colors.
March 15th, 2008
Most horse trainers take their job seriously, especially if they’re working with Kentucky Derby contenders. Take Barclay Tagg, for example. Here’s a guy who spends his summers in New York training horses and his winters in Florida training horses. Barclay Tagg once said, “That’s all I do. I don’t play golf. I don’t go bowling. I don’t go to Disneyland. I just take good care of the horses and wait for something good to happen. It took me 30-some years but this lovely thing came along.” Tagg was speaking about 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, but maybe he’ll be saying good things about Tale of Ekati.
Kentucky Derby Contender: Tale of Ekati
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Owner: Charles Fipke
Graded Earnings: $319,200
Profile: 9-1-12-2-0
In his first start of the year, Tale of Ekati finished out of the money and placed 6th at the Louisiana Derby on March 8. “It didn’t work out the way we planned,” Tale of Ekati jockey Edgar Prado said. “I was supposed to be close but we broke bad.” He’s headed to the Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5, according to Robin Smullen, trainer Barclay Tagg’s assistant.
Past Performances
Recent Workouts
NTRA Profile
At the Bodog Racebook Tale of Ekati is currently listed at 50/1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby.
March 14th, 2008
Trainer Barclay Tagg is looking forward to Elysium Fields’s next race, the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. He’s been giving the horse a good workout and feels confident he’s got a strong contender.
“We expect him to run here,” Tagg said. “We have to make sure we get all his workouts in or else we might have to change our plans, but I would prefer to run on this track and I like the five weeks (between the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby).”
Kentucky Derby Contender: Elysium Fields
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Owner: Robert S. Evans
Graded Earnings:
Profile: 2-5-21-4-0
Past Performances
Recent Workouts
NTRA Profile
This powerfully built colt was a very determined runner-up to Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park (Grade 2) on Feb. 24. The rematch between these two colts is set for the Florida Derby on March 29 at Gulfstream.
Currently the odds on Elysium Fields winning the Kentucky Derby are set at 25/1.
March 14th, 2008
Winner of the Southwest Stakes, Denis of Cork is also a 12/1 fourth-choice favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. In order to make the most of that big race it seems he’s been ordered to take some time off now to rest up.
“He’s a big, light-framed horse, and we feel he’s doing better with spacing [between his races],” said Denis of Cork’s trainer, David Carroll. “Lots of discussion has gone into it, and we feel very comfortable with that decision. Now, our focus switches to his next race.”
Kentucky Derby Contender: Denis of Cork
Trainer: David Carroll
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Owner: Mr. & Mrs. William K and Warren Jr.
Graded Earnings: $150,000
Race Record: 3-3-0-0
Past Performances
Recent Workouts
NTRA Profile
Denis of Cork is the son of promising sire Harlan’s Holiday. He crushed Oaklawn rivals but will skip the Rebel Stakes on March 15 (Grade 2) at Oaklawn Park and await either the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) or the Illinois Derby (Grade 2) on April 5.
March 14th, 2008
Stable mate Why Tonto edged favorite Cowboy Cal by 1½ lengths in the $77,000 Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month, but for awhile there it was looking good for the Tropical Derby winner. Cowboy Cal opened a one-length lead against Why Tonto through a half-mile in :46.12 and led by a head through six furlongs.
Kentucky Derby Contender: Cowboy Cal
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: Stonerside Stable
Graded Earnings: $57,660
Race Record: 5-3-1-0
Past Performances
Recent Workouts
NTRA Profile
Pletcher is expected to use the April 12 Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1) at Keeneland as a final Kentucky Derby prep for Cowboy Cal. At most sportsbooks, Cowboy Cal is listed at 40/1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby.
March 10th, 2008
Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opened Thursday with War Pass the early favorite at 3-1 and Pyro second at 6-1. Then Pyro won Saturday’s Grade II Louisiana Derby by three lengths, leaving contenders like Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati well behind. By Sunday night’s close, Pyro was the Pool 2 favorite at 4-1 and War Pass second at 9-2. Both horses were listed at 7-1 on the Derby futures market at press time.
Every Derby contender is something of an overnight success story, being just three years old. Pyro’s story begins with sire Pulpit, himself a son of the incredibly successful A.P. Indy. Pulpit and dam Wild Vision both give Pyro plenty of speed, but not a lot of stamina, which could be a problem over the 1 1/4-mile track at Churchill Downs. Pyro’s Grade III Risen Star Stakes victory was over 1 1/16 miles, just like Saturday’s race. Can he go the extra half-furlong?
