Kentucky Derby: Odds to Win the Kentucky Oaks
April 28th, 2007This one’s for the ladies.
Churchill Downs is about more than just mint julep and the Kentucky Derby. There’s also the Kentucky Oaks, the premier race on the calendar for 3-year-old fillies. Fourteen spots are available in the starting field, and at press time, there were at least 15 horses lining up for a shot at the $500,000 purse.
The easy favorite on the futures market is Rags to Riches at 3-2. This Todd Pletcher-trained chestnut filly certainly has the pedigree (sired by A.P. Indy, the 1992 Horse of the Year), and she took first place in all three of her races this year, including the Grade I Las Virgenes and the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks. However, Rags to Riches has yet to race against the level of competition she will encounter in Louisville on May 4.
That competition would have been even stiffer had Magnificence not come up with heat in her ankle after posting an amazing 109 Beyer figure in winning the Grade III Santa Paula Stakes. Folk may pose a challenge should she enter the race; her status remained uncertain as recently as last week, making the “field” at 20-1 an intriguing value choice for any handicapper with some Folk foreknowledge.
The next horse on the odds list, and the apparent No. 2 consensus choice of horseplayers, is another Todd Pletcher entry: Octave at 6-1. This roan filly knows plenty about second place – that was her result in each of her last four races, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
The best value on the market may be the Juvenile winner. Dreaming of Anna (30-1) had been pointed elsewhere after some poor results as a 3-year-old, but her recent work has been so pleasing that trainer Wayne Catalano appears ready to change his mind. Dreaming of Anna was 9-1 in Pool 2 of the Oaks Future Wager, so expect her current odds to get a lot shorter.


