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Hard Spun vs. Curlin: Who’s the Better Bet?

October 4th, 2007

During the Triple Crown, Hard Spun was playing third wheel to Street Sense and Curlin. But the dark bay is on a roll. He finished in second at the Grade I Haskell Invitational, ahead of third-place Curlin, and then beat Street Sense last week to win the Grade II Kentucky Cup Classic.

The Haskell result took place at Monmouth Park, where the Breeders’ Cup will be run later this month. So who’s the better bet for the Classic: Hard Spun or Curlin?

Let’s look at the odds first. The field isn’t set, but the futures market is already open, and Curlin is the third favorite at 5-1. Hard Spun is fifth on the odds list at 7-1. It’ll be a packed field at the Classic, and Curlin has proved himself capable of defeating the best of the best. Hard Spun has been a bit of a front runner, and his success at Turfway Park might not translate to Monmouth.

Breeders’ Cup Betting: Street Sense vs. Lawyer Ron – Who’s Better?

October 3rd, 2007

Looks like we’re going to have one heck of a Breeders’ Cup Classic later this month. The projected field is overflowing with quality – with Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and Whitney Handicap champ Lawyer Ron among the favorites. They were 1-2 on the NTRA Thoroughbred Poll heading into this past weekend’s action, each with four victories this year.

But who’s better? Street Sense was the talk of the horse-racing circuit heading into the Derby. The dark bay has posted two first-place results and two seconds since then, leaving him with just under $3 million in earnings on the year. Lawyer Ron, meanwhile, had “only” $1.17 million heading into the weekend after taking smaller events like the Whitney and the Woodward Stakes.

Lawyer Ron’s a 4-year-old; the Classic will be the first time he and the 3-year-old Street Sense will have met in 2007. It’s hard not to favor the proven Kentucky Derby winner.

Breeders’ Cup: Who’s the dark horse?

October 3rd, 2007

It’s going to be a little while yet before we know the full field for this month’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. But we do know that Student Council has qualified, courtesy of his Aug. 19 win at the Pacific Classic.

Dark horses don’t come much darker. The 5-year-old is currently 15th on the NTRA Thoroughbred Pool. But Student Council deserves some representation. His Pacific Classic win at 23-1 odds was considered a fluke; then he followed that up on Saturday with another victory at the Grade II Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap. This time, Student Council “only” paid $5.20.

Expect those odds to go back up in a Classic field that will likely include Curlin, Street Sense, Lawyer Ron, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday. But with two victories in a row, veteran jockey Richard Migliore in the saddle and a new top-flight trainer in Steve Asmussen, Student Council has earned a spot with the big boys.

Breeders’ Cup: Street Sense

September 5th, 2007

As usual, there has been a bit of a lull in horse racing coverage since the end of the Triple Crown trail. But now that the Breeders’ Cup is looming on the horizon, Street Sense is once again drawing his share of attention.

And no wonder. The Kentucky Derby winner is without a doubt one of the finest-looking horses ever born. The dark bay finished first at the Travers Stakes to record his fourth victory in six races as a three-year-old; Street Sense finished second at the other two events – including to Curlin at the Preakness.

Street Sense has yet to win a Breeders’ Cup Challenge event to qualify for automatic entry into the Classic, but it’s inevitable that he will appear at the Oct. 27 race. Whether he’ll be favored depends in part on his schedule; trainer Carl Nafzger has yet to decide where his prize thoroughbred will race next.

Breeders’ Cup: Lawyer Ron

September 5th, 2007

Lawyer Ron has passed the bar. The chestnut colt had already qualified for October’s Breeders’ Cup Classic with a convincing win at the Whitney Handicap; now he’s on a serious roll after dominating the field at Saturday’s Woodward Stakes.

Those two victories at Saratoga extend Lawyer Ron’s record as a 4-year-old to 4-1-1 (four wins, one place, one show) in six races. They also vaulted the Todd Pletcher-trained thoroughbred to the top of the list of Classic contenders, even ahead of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense in the eyes of some observers.

Let’s temper that enthusiasm for a moment. The fields at both the Whitney and the Woodward left something to be desired; the most notable horses Lawyer Ron left in the dust were Sun King and Corinthian. Let’s see how he performs at the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on Sept. 30, where he may face Preakness winner Curlin.

$1 Million Travers Stakes Results

August 27th, 2007

street-sense.jpg

Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense put another notch in his saddle on Saturday, taking the Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course by half a length over Grasshopper and Helsinki.

Street Sense was the overwhelming 1-4 favorite, but Grasshopper made the event worthwhile by setting the pace and holding it until the final strides. Helsinki was a distant third, 10-1/4 lengths behind Grasshopper.

By winning both the Kentucky Derby and Saturday’s “Midsummer Derby,” Street Sense has to be considered one of the top threats for the Oct. 27 Breeders’ Cup Classic. But the style he used to overtake Grasshopper should pique the interest of horseplayers.

Instead of closing from well off the pace, as he did to win the Kentucky Derby, Street Sense stalked Grasshopper from third place behind C P West. A faster pace would have required a different strategy, but it’s still good to see some versatility heading into the Classic.

Belmont Stakes: Betting Preview

June 2nd, 2007

With Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense out of the Belmont Stakes, that leaves Preakness winner Curlin and Derby runner-up Hard Spun as the favorites. Curlin defeated Street Sense by a nose in the Preakness taking away any chance of a Triple Crown attempt, but there’s still a chance that bettors could cash in at Belmont Park even if Triple Crown fans have no real reason to watch.

Aside from the two favorites already mentioned, the other known Belmont entrants includes Tiago, Slew’s Tizzy, Imawildandcrazyguy and Digger. Todd Pletcher is expected to enter either Circular Quay or Rags to Riches (or maybe even both), but we won’t know which one until it’s formally announced later this week.

Both Tiago and Imawildandcrazyguy raced in the Derby, and both sat out the Preakness. Tiago was a disappointing seventh in the Derby, but won the Santa Anita Derby earlier this season and is a contender to upset at Belmont Park. Imawildandcrazyguy came in fourth at the Derby, but hasn’t raced since. He should be well-rested and could also be a big upset contender this weekend.

Slew’s Tizzy probably won’t register on most bettors’ radar, but he should. According to reports Slew’s Tizzy has been running some superb workouts lately and they’re being compared to the workouts he was delivering just before he won the Lone Star Derby earlier this year.

The biggest long shot will likely be Digger. The chances of Digger pulling off a huge upset in the Belmont looks highly unlikely, as the last time Digger raced he was the runner-up in the Charles Town allowance.

The 2007 Triple Crown Trail

April 17th, 2007

Sure, the biggest race of this upcoming weekend takes place at Daytona (Git R Done!), but since I know very little about restrictor plates or even how to change my own oil, let’s stick with the ponies. There are a couple of interesting races this weekend that may have Kentucky Derby implications.

Here are the holiday weekend stakes for three year olds:

February 17
Jim’s Orbit Stakes Sam Houston 1 M
Sam F. Davis Stakes Tampa Bay Downs 1 1/16 M
Borderland Derby Sunland Park 1 1/16 M
Turf Paradise Derby Turf Paradise 1 1 /16 M

February 19
Southwest Stakes Oaklawn Park 1 M
Fred Capossela Aqueduct 6 F

Yes, I know there seems to be little chance the Kentucky Derby winner is going to come through Sam Houston, Sunland Park, or Turf Paradise. But that doesn’t mean we can’t get a small wager in, right?

The highlight of the weekend will take place on Monday, which is President’s Day. It’s Oaklawn Park’s first leg of their Oaklawn Triple Crown Series. The first leg is the Southwest Stakes, followed by the Rebel Stakes on March 17 and the Arkansas Derby on April 14.

Oaklawn Park has become a fashionable place to prep for the Triple Crown after successful trips to Hot Springs by the likes of Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones.

The colt to watch and likely favorite is going to be the undefeated Hard Spun. Like “Alex” and “Smarty” he ships in from the Mid-Atlantic area. The colt has an impressive pedigree, by Danzig out of the Turkoman mare Turkish Tryst. The colt has not been tested in his four starts, all romps.

He broke his maiden at Delaware Park last October by 8 3/4 lengths. In his first start against winners he easily won the $54,000 Port Penn Stakes by five lengths. The colt then shipped to Philadelphia Park and won the $50,000 Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes in December by 7 3/4 lengths.

In his three year old debut at Fair Grounds on January 13, the colt rolled to a 6 1/2 length victory in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes.

Trainer Larry Jones reported the colt suffered from a cough a couple of weeks ago, but put in a bullet work on February 7 over the main track at Oaklawn Park, 1:00.3 breezing. It was the best of 51 to work going five furlongs that morning.

In the first round of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager the colt checked in fourth in the wagering, behind only the field, Nobiz Like Showbiz, and Street Sense.

His main competition is likely going to come from Forty Grams and Officer Rocket.

Forty Grams will be making his stakes debut for trainer Steve Asmussen. The colt is coming off a 13-length win against Alw-1 company at Fair Grounds on January 29. The colt is by Distorted Humor out of the Phone Trick mare Belle South.

Officer Rocket was the beaten favorite in his last start in the $50,000 Dixieland Stakes at Oaklawn Park on January 19. The colt won a pair of stakes races as a two-year-old at Arlington Park including the Grade 3 Arlington Breeders’ Cup Futurity. The colt is by the up-and-coming sire Officer out of the Gone West mare Ocean View.

Another promising colt will be in action at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. Any Given Sunday will likely go off as the heavy favorite in the $150,000 Sam Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. The colt is trained by three-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, who has nominated 32 three-year-olds to this year’s Triple Crown.

The colt was a $1.1 million purchase and is making his first start since a runner-up finish last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on November 25 at Churchill Downs. The colt is by Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Weekend in Indy.

So if you are looking to play a parlay this weekend how about we go with Hard Spun, Any Given Sunday, and well… throw in Tony Stewart.

Street Sense and Dreaming of Anna: Triple Crown Winner?

April 16th, 2007

After an impressive ten-length win in last fall’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the talk started. Can we finally see a Juvie winner come back and win the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby? Or even win the Triple Crown?

After Breeders’ Cup Day we thought we were going to have an added bonus. Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly winner Dreaming of Anna was a very impressive winner, and owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Wayne Catalano said their talented filly would be pointed toward the Triple Crown.

That idea came to a halt on February 10 when the filly made her three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes. She stumbled coming out of the gate and did not look like the same filly who won the Eclipse Award for top two-year-old filly, weakening to finish third.

The connections have now decided to keep her facing the girls and she is likely going to do most of her running this year on turf. She won the Grade 3 Summer on grass last fall.

That leaves us with Street Sense to end the Juvie jinx. The colt will likely make his three-year-old debut in either the Hutcheson at Gulfstream or the Rushaway at Oaklawn Park. If all goes well, his second and final Kentucky Derby prep will come in the Blue Grass at Keeneland over the polytrack.

The colt is trained by Carl Nafzger, who won the Kentucky Derby in 1990 with Unbridled. Street Sense is by Street Cry out of a Dixieland Band mare.

The colt has the right foundation to be a top Derby contender. He made five starts as a two-year-old. He broke his maiden in his second career start and followed that up with third-place finishes in the Grade 3 Arlington Washington Futurity and the Grade 2 Breeders’ Futurity before his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win.

There was encouraging news out of Palm Meadows on Sunday where the two-year-old champ is training. The colt worked five furlongs in a speedy 1:00.4.

Nafzger told The Daily Racing Form, “This is what we’ve been building to thus far all winter. He really kicked in down the stretch and hit the line good. We’ve hit every step perfectly with him up to now, but he’s still a couple of more works away before he’s ready to run. But a work like this gives us more options to consider as we get closer.”

Futures bettors are ignoring “The Jinx” as Street Sense closed at 10/1 in Pool One of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The only betting interests to get more action were the field (5/2) and Nobiz Like Shobiz, who went off at 8/1.

The colt has Kentucky Derby winning connections, a pedigree that is about as good as any of the main contenders to get the 1 1/4 miles, and obviously has the talent.

Now all he needs to do is get through his two prep races healthy and get some racing luck on the first Saturday of May.

Sounds so easy, doesn’t it? The Racing Gods don’t think so.

Right now the score is Racing Gods 23, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners 0.

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