It’s amazing how little we know about what will happen at the 2008 Kentucky Derby. On Friday, the mutuel field once again opened as the Pool 1 favorite for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, as it has every year since their parimutuel futures market opened in 1999. In very early betting Friday, the field was 5-2, ahead of War Pass at 7-2 and Pyro at 9-1.

Things changed significantly after Pyro won Saturday’s Grade III Risen Star Stakes in New Orleans. By the close of Pool 1 betting on Sunday, the field was 3-1, Pyro was 5-1 and War Pass was 6-1.

There will be two more Future Wager polls before the Run for the Roses on May 3. The Derby futures market usually follows these odds quite closely; picking the winner this early is difficult, but can pay off handsomely, as supporters of Street Sense (12-1 in last year’s Pool 1) can tell you.